Characterizing the environmental drivers of the abundance and distribution of <scp> <i>Alopecurus myosuroides</i> </scp> on a national scale

BACKGROUND Arable weeds threaten farming and food production, impacting on productivity. Large-scale data weed populations are typically lacking, changes frequently undocumented until they reach problem levels. Managing the future spread of requires that we understand factors influence current densities distributions. In doing so, one challenges is to measure at a large enough scale be able accurately in Here analyse density distribution major (Alopecurus myosuroides) scale. Our objectives were (i) develop methodology for rapid measurement occurrence abundance, (ii) test hypotheses about roles soils climate variation determining densities, (iii) use this information identify areas which could increase future. RESULTS Populations mapped through England over 4 years 4631 locations. We also analysed UK atlas published past 50 years. Densities show significant interannual variability, but historical species has spread. find impacts soil rainfall with proportion heavy soils, decrease increasing rainfall. Compared independent found our statistical models provide good predictions large-scale occupancy maps potential densities. CONCLUSION Models highlight localised nature colonisation, emphasises need management limit dispersal. Comparisons current, distributions suggest sizeable habitable increases abundance still possible. © 2021 The Authors. Pest Management Science by John Wiley & Sons Ltd behalf Society Chemical Industry.